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Bitcoin Price analysis December 2, 2015

1

This week, the price of bitcoin went up as high as $ 383 – a resistance level from November 9th – from where price broke down to low $ 300s. From last week’s analysis, $ 380 as a target level was expected; now, the price has retracted to consolidate and possibly gather more steam for another attempt at breaking up to $ 420; however, a second attempt at breaking $ 380 is not a foregone conclusion. Price action this week held $ 320 as strong support, for a firm bounce up to $ 383.

Some traders are of the opinion the bull run from November is over, so wise to be cautious of limited upside

“That current candlestick pattern and volume indicate that bulls are out of steam. It’ll head back to 300 and likely break below.”

$350 and $ 360 zone is evidently a crucial zone, telling from price action in that range – price consolidated in this zone after breaking up from $ 320. Now that trading is happening in this range after breaking down from $ 380, a period of trading sideways in this territory might be in order.

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The 50 day EMA is about to be tested again from below, similar to Nove 21 – 25 when a sideways trend prevailed. The bullish cross above 200 EMA on Nove 27 re-affirmed a change in trend. In the coming weeks, 50 EMA will retest 200 EMA from above,in an attempt to maintain this upward trend; breaking below it is a bearish cross signal.

I expect several attempts by price candles to break up above 50 day EMA again, and try hold. This might not be immediate, as alternatively, a sideways trend will drag it out, testing it multiple times until a break – up or down occurs.

3

SMAs paint a similar picture to EMAs – 200 and 50 SMA are converging for a squeeze.

From the RSI, I expect it to remain below 50 for a while, resulting in a sideways trend in price. If bulls still have it in them to go up to low $ 400s, RSI will gradually rise towards 70 level. We are approaching another decisive call

“385 target reached but the new weekly candle looks like limited upside or rollercoaster when above 385”

BITCOIN FUNDAMENTALS

Scaling Bitcoin 2 Workshop set for 6/7th December

In 5 days, core developers will gather for a workshop in Hong Kong to continue presentations and discussions on different technical proposals on scaling bitcoin. According to Bitcoin Magazine, it is a follow up to one in Montreal.

Bitcoin achieving scale is one major factor holding it back from achieving its potential mainstream utility. The deadlock has been on whether or not to increase block sizes and if yes, by how much. Block size limit controversy, a wiki, elaborates on the different proposals and arguments for or against an increase.

This blocksize debate and the ability for Bitcoin to scale will continue to suppress prices until it is resolved.

AMA by Tuur Demeester – Bitcoin investor, economist and founder of Adamant Research

If you have not read this AMA, i highly recommend it for a balanced view on the price of Bitcoin over the next 5 years. Tuur authors one of the best research reports on Bitcoin in this space. His background in analysing global macro trends and debt fuelled financial markets, gives credence to his opinions and forecasts, such as How to Position for the Rally in Bitcoin, his most recent report.

Commenting on the price of bitcoin over the next 12 months

“I think that in 2016 we are going to see a rally in Bitcoin during which the $1,000 level may be challenged (I give this a 60% chance*) or exceeded (I give that a 40% chance)”

Must read!

Visa Europe Tests Live Bitcoin Blockchain for Remittances

This was confirmed by one of Visa europe’s partners on this project, Edan Yago, CEO of Epiphyte while speaking to Coindesk. He believes, bitcoin offers a solution to the remittances problem, going as far as describing it

“A payment that would go from fiat currency and be received in [Kenyan mobile money service] M-Pesa, but it would be facilitated through one of the blockchain providers that enables transfers of those funds,”

This is great news for bitcoin (the currency) and opens the door to more mainstream corporations shifting from private blockchains to using the mother lode – the Bitcoin Blockchain

Bitcoin Weekly Price Forecast

This week I am cautious. Sentiment has changed since price rocketed to $ 500. The euphoria accompanying this run up has diminished. My forecast is neutral (sideways) or bullish – with limited upside. I am shooting for $430, after the current correction finds a bottom.

One comment

  1. whatever you might say, clearly you are looking at the wrong charts.

    “…volume indicate that bulls are out of steam…”

    think again, the last few days have had massive volume at the chinese exchanges. even greater than the october/november bull run.

    huobi has 10x the volume of bitfinex
    16,893,10btc vs. 1,623,846btc (30day volume)

    Chinese exchanges set the price of bitcoin these days, either get with the times, or go fumbling in the dark trying to gauge trends based on bucketshop volume

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